The Debt We Don’t Want to Talk About

Why Our National Blind Spot Could Rewrite the Future

There are a lot of things I don’t worry about anymore. Getting promoted. Buying the latest phone. Finding the right tie. But one thing I still worry about—probably more than I should—is the national debt.

Not because I think it’s going to collapse the country tomorrow. Not because I have some macroeconomic theory to push. I worry because I’ve been around long enough to know that when something looks too big to fail, it usually means no one’s planning for when it does.

Right now, the U.S. debt sits above $35 trillion. That’s a number we toss around like confetti at a budget hearing—vague, distant, and someone else’s problem. And adding another $3.5 billion is just discussion on the nightly news. But it’s not abstract. It’s very real. The little addition is equivalent to about $1,100 per person. And it’s growing faster than even the pessimists predicted.

What’s Being Ignored

There’s an old quote often misattributed to Keynes (English economist and philosopher whose ideas fundamentally changed the theory and practice of macroeconomics): “In the long run, we are all dead.” What he actually meant was that policy needs to solve today’s problems, not wait for theoretical corrections. But somewhere along the line, we twisted that into justification for never worrying about the long run.

Keynes also warned, “The avoidance of taxes is the only intellectual pursuit that carries any reward.” And we’ve taken him at his word—layering tax cuts on top of spending hikes, pretending they’ll pay for themselves. Milton Friedman, no bleeding-heart Keynesian, once said: “There’s nothing so permanent as a temporary government program.” Add a few trillion in tax cuts and a couple of small wars to that idea, and you’ve got a fiscal time bomb dressed in patriotic wrapping paper.

Now, people like Warren Buffett are speaking up. In a recent interview, he bluntly called the U.S. deficit path “unsustainable” and warned that we are “approaching dangerous territory” by running 6% to 7% deficits as a share of GDP.

Elon Musk went further arguing that the debt spiral has already begun, and that rising interest payments will soon outpace the country’s ability to function normally: “It’s not a question of if. It’s a question of when.”

And yet, neither the president nor his detractors are talking seriously about it. The One Big Beautiful Bill passed with fanfare but without fiscal grounding. No real plan. No serious debate. Just more tax relief layered on top of unfunded spending priorities and partisan wish lists.

Can Growth Solve the Problem?

Some argue that transformational growth—the kind I wrote about in Can We Repeat the Transformation?—will outpace the debt. That artificial intelligence, productivity gains, and innovation will lift the economy enough to make these trillions look smaller in hindsight.

And I want to believe that. But transformational growth doesn’t just happen. It takes leadership, strategic investment, and stability—all of which are in short supply when interest payments start to consume 15% or more of your federal budget.

Warren Buffett Isn’t Buying It

“We are running what I regard as a fiscal deficit that’s out of control.”
—Warren Buffett, 2024 shareholder meeting

Buffett has long been cautious about alarmist rhetoric, but when he calls something “unsustainable,” people listen:

• “It’s easy to ignore debt until it’s the only thing you can see.”
• “There’s no incentive to fix it because the costs aren’t immediate.”
• “Eventually, the world will stop treating U.S. Treasuries as a free lunch.”

His warnings echo those in Megathreats by Nouriel Roubini—a book I reviewed earlier this year. Among the many global risks it outlines, debt is the most universal. It weakens resilience, undermines trust, and takes future options off the table before we even know we need them.

Interest payments alone now eat up over 3% of GDP—more than we spend on education. And they’re rising. This isn’t because of new borrowing, but because the cost of old borrowing is getting more expensive. It’s the fiscal equivalent of maxing out your credit card and watching the interest payments triple.

As this second chart shows, interest payments have quietly ballooned to over 14% of total federal spending. That’s more than the Department of Education, Department of Transportation, and Veterans Affairs—combined.

What Happens If the World Stops Believing?

Sometimes what keeps a system going isn’t just its mechanics—it’s the belief that the system will continue to function. That belief is what makes U.S. Treasuries the global standard. It’s what gives the dollar its dominance. And it’s what allows us to carry massive debt without immediate pain.

But belief is fragile.

And while I’m not predicting collapse, I am pointing to something more subtle—and more dangerous: erosion. If we keep pretending the debt doesn’t matter… if we keep piling on unfunded promises… if we keep politicizing the very idea of fiscal responsibility… the world may eventually stop seeing us as the safe bet we’ve always been.

And here’s what rarely gets discussed:

• If the world stops buying our debt, interest rates will rise—for everyone.
• If the dollar loses its reserve status, imports become more expensive, inflation more likely.
• And if we ever fail to make a payment—whether through default or dysfunction—it’s not just the markets that crack. It’s the foundation of trust beneath them.

These aren’t predictions. They’re possibilities. And the fact that no one in Washington seems willing to acknowledge them—not the president, not his detractors—is exactly why they matter.

A Different Kind of Wake-Up Call

I may not live long enough to see the full impact. But our grandchildren will. And if we keep pretending debt doesn’t matter, we’re not just passing the buck—we’re planting a bomb.

There’s still time to change course. But not if we keep hiding from the conversation.

This isn’t about panic. It’s about honesty. The longer we wait, the fewer the options. The smaller the lever. And the greater the chance that someone else—some other generation—has to pay the price for our avoidance.

That’s not the future I want to leave behind.

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