When the Old System Won’t Leave and the New One Won’t Wait
We tend to think about technological change as if it happens in neat stages. There is the old system. Somebody invents something better. Then, after a little confusion, everybody switches. That is not usually how it works. The hardest part of technological change may not be the old system or the new system. It may be the long period when both have to operate together. Andrew Miller recently described this problem in the context of autonomous vehicles. His argument is that roads may become most difficult not when almost everyone is driving manually, and not when almost everyone is automated, but somewhere in the middle. Imagine a road filled with conventional human drivers, cars using advanced driver assistance, and fully autonomous vehicles. Human drivers improvise….
