There is a question that everyone seems to have an opinion on. And that has to do with climate change. Some indicate this is a dire situation that will impact us all in the near future while others say there is nothing to be overly concerned about. Those with concerns state the increase in natural disaster around the world is a definite sine of a growing problem. The nay sayers point out that this is just a natural adjustment the earth makes over centuries.
There are lots of facts that support the climate change position but that is not the argument I want to discuss here. I want to look at two competing issues: population growth and the ability to feed the world, which are in the discussion but do not seem to get the same amount of attention as global warming or decreasing air quality.
Let’s look at population first.
Global Population Growth (1950 to Present):
- 1950: The world population was approximately 2.5 billion.
- 2000: The world population was approximately 6.1 billion. 144% growth rate
(a lot of global warming issues would go away if we could go back to this level of population) - 2023: The world population is around 8 billion. 24% growth rate
Population Growth by Continent:
- China:
- 1950: ~554 million
- 2023: ~1.42 billion
- Growth:. Growth rates slowed significantly after the one-child policy was implemented in 1980, and the population is now stabilizing and expected to decline in the coming decades.
- India:
- 1950: ~376 million
- 2023: ~1.42 billion
- Growth: India’s population has grown dramatically. Growth remains robust, although it is slowing due to declining fertility rates.
- Rest of Asia (excluding China and India):
- 1950: ~470 million
- 2023: ~1.86 billion
- Growth: Growth rates vary, with some countries like Japan experiencing a population decline due to aging, while others, like Indonesia and Pakistan, continue to grow rapidly.
- Africa:
- 1950: ~229 million
- 2023: ~1.4 billion
- Growth: Africa has experienced rapid population growth and is expected to continue growing rapidly, potentially doubling by 2050.
- Europe: includes Russia
- 1950: ~549 million
- 2023: ~748 million
- Growth: Europe has seen relatively slow growth compared to other continents, with some countries experiencing population decline due to low birth rates and aging populations.
- North America:
- 1950: ~172 million
- 2023: ~603 million
- Growth: The population in North America has increased steadily, mainly due to immigration and relatively higher birth rates compared to Europe.
- Latin America and the Caribbean:
- 1950: ~167 million
- 2023: ~660 million
- Growth: The region has experienced significant growth, though it is beginning to slow as birth rates decline.
- Oceania:
- 1950: ~13 million
- 2023: ~44 million
- Growth: Oceania, including Australia and New Zealand, has seen steady growth.
And here are some projections for the next 50 years.
Based on the population trends from the last 75 years, here are the projected global population figures for the next 50 years, in 10-year increments:
Projected Global Population Growth (2025 – 2075):
- 2025: ~8.1 billion
- 2035: ~8.6 billion
- 2045: ~9.1 billion
- 2055: ~9.5 billion
- 2065: ~9.7 billion
- 2075: ~9.8 billion 5% growth rate
- Growth Slowdown: Population growth is expected to slow significantly due to declining birth rates in many parts of the world, particularly in developed countries and parts of Asia, including China.
- Regional Variations: Africa is projected to see substantial growth, while some regions, like Europe and parts of Asia, may experience stagnation or decline due to aging populations and low fertility rates.
So, from my mostly warped and sardonic position, there are currently too many people in the world and that will grow by nearly twenty five percent over the next fifty years. The “easy” way to reduce carbon emissions and other global warming trends of course would be to reduce the global population by 20 to 25% but that will not happen. The Spanish flu had that kind of impact in the early 20th century, but pandemics just don’t yield results like that anymore.
Which brings up the second question, will the world be able to feed all of those people. I had to get some help on this and found a research paper by Alex Smith at the Breakthrough Journal.
“Will climate change starve us all?” probably not according to Alex Smith, “But Bad Science Communication and Fear Mongering Might” This article debunks claims that soil degradation will lead to imminent food shortages, arguing that these assertions lack scientific basis and foster unnecessary fear. Smith emphasizes that while climate change poses challenges to agriculture, technological advancements have significantly boosted productivity, outpacing negative impacts. The piece warns against embracing organic and regenerative farming over industrial methods, highlighting that these alternatives could reduce yields and worsen food security and climate mitigation efforts.
Smith critiques media sources that perpetuate exaggerated claims about an impending agricultural apocalypse, often driven by activists or critics of industrial agriculture with vested interests. He stresses that technological advancements, such as synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation systems, and genetic modification, have increased agricultural output despite climate change. The article argues for continued investment in both public and private research to develop new agricultural technologies and improve existing ones, ensuring food security in a changing climate.
Smith also discusses the detrimental effects of shifting entirely to organic or regenerative farming methods. He points out that these practices often have lower yields compared to conventional farming and could require more land, increasing carbon emissions and reducing natural carbon sinks. Rejecting industrial agriculture in favor of less efficient alternatives could be disastrous for global food security and climate mitigation efforts.
So, what should our conclusion be?
Population growth projections will have significant implications for food accessibility, affecting agricultural-based foods, livestock, and fisheries differently:
1. Impact on Agricultural-Based Foods:
- Increased Demand: As the population grows, the demand for staple crops like wheat, rice, and maize will rise. This could strain agricultural systems, especially in regions already facing climate change impacts, soil degradation, and water scarcity.
- Technological Innovations: To meet growing demand, innovations in farming practices, crop breeding, and water use efficiency will be essential. This means adoption of emerging technology improvement is farming along with the adoption of not yet explored topography for farms. Tearing down the rain forests in Brazil is not the answer but expanding heretofore undeveloped open spaces in African and South America could be.
2. Impact on Livestock:
- Resource Intensity: Livestock production is resource-intensive, requiring significant amounts of land, water, and feed. With a growing population, the demand for meat and dairy products is expected to increase, potentially exacerbating deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions, and water use.
- Alternative Proteins: There may be a shift toward alternative proteins, such as plant-based meats or lab-grown meats, to reduce the environmental impact and improve sustainability. However, these alternatives need to scale up to meet the growing demand effectively. Less dependency on beef, pork, lamb and chicken in developing economies may have to be implemented.
3. Impact on Fisheries and Aquaculture:
- Overfishing Concerns: Increasing population pressures can exacerbate overfishing, leading to depleted fish stocks and disrupted marine ecosystems. The accessibility of wild-caught fish may decrease, affecting food security, particularly in coastal communities. Much of the ocean needs to be left alone so that it can repair itself. Commercial fishing should be curtailed especially the aggressive practices by the Chinese.
- Aquaculture Expansion: The means to meet the growing demand for fish new processes for development will be needed such as aquaculture (fish farming).. However, this comes with its own set of challenges, including pollution, disease management, and ensuring sustainable feed sources.
Conclusion:
The impact of population growth on food accessibility will vary across different types of food production systems. While technological advancements and sustainable practices can help mitigate some of these challenges, a multi-faceted approach involving innovation, policy changes, and consumer behavior shifts will be essential to ensure food security for a growing global population. The pure or organic food bigots will have to get out of way and let science and engineering of food production find better solutions for healthier alternatives and develop processes to increase supplies especially in Asia, Africa and South America
These will be problems that Gen Y, Gen Z and Alpha generations will have to address and I hope that can do so with more initiative and imagination than I have seen from this group to date.
