If you are confused about what is happening in the Middle East as I am, here is an article that tries to put most everything into some sort of perspective. Usually when we get reports in the news about this region, it covers one entity or another whether is it Isreal, Iran, Hamas or others. So, trying to grasp a view of the whole region is difficult. This article tries to make some sense of it and put all the players in some perspective including the US and Russia.
Here is a synopsis (written by a third party) of the article and the article can be found here
What Is Happening in Syria?
The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria has left a power vacuum, and now a host of players—both regional and global—are vying for influence. This dramatic shift isn’t just about Syria; it’s a high-stakes chess game reshaping the Middle East and rippling across global geopolitics.
What’s Happening on the Ground?
Assad, once propped up by allies like Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, lost their critical support. Iran’s influence was weakened by military setbacks and the loss of Hezbollah as a reliable force. Russia, distracted by its war in Ukraine, scaled back its involvement, leaving Assad vulnerable. Without this backing, his regime collapsed quickly.
Filling the void is Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group that has evolved from its extremist roots as an Al Qaeda offshoot into a dominant force. HTS swept through key regions, including Damascus and much of the west, in a matter of days. They’re now the most powerful force in Syria, but far from unchallenged.
The Regional Players and Their Goals
Syria’s turmoil has drawn in neighboring powers, each with their own interests and objectives:
- Turkey: Turkey opposes both Assad’s regime and Kurdish forces in the north. The Turks fear Kurdish autonomy could inspire separatist movements among their own Kurdish population. Simultaneously, Turkey wants to stabilize northern Syria to manage the return of millions of Syrian refugees. While Turkey is a NATO ally, its interests often conflict with those of the U.S., especially regarding support for Kurdish forces.
- Iran: Iran once saw Syria as a crucial piece in its strategy to project power to the Mediterranean. By supporting Assad, Hezbollah, and Hamas, Iran hoped to secure influence across the region. Now, with its proxies weakened and its military focus diverted, Iran’s influence in Syria is waning.
- Israel: Israel has seized the opportunity to eliminate potential threats. In recent weeks, it has neutralized Syrian air defenses, military bases, and weapons facilities to ensure that any future Syrian government poses no threat to its borders. Israel’s priority is securing its own position in the region, regardless of who takes over Syria.
- Russia: Russia initially used its involvement in Syria to assert itself as a global power and secure a critical naval base at Tartus. With its military tied up in Ukraine, Russia has largely withdrawn, but it’s likely to hold onto the naval base for strategic reasons.
- The U.S.: The U.S. has long supported Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, but its role is shrinking. Under Trump’s leadership, America appears set to limit its involvement further, leaving local players to determine Syria’s future.
- Saudi Arabia: Historically backing Sunni rebels against Assad, Saudi Arabia’s role has been more subdued lately. As long as a Sunni-led government emerges, Riyadh is unlikely to push deeper into the conflict.
What’s Next for Syria?
Syria is fragmented, with HTS controlling key population centers, Kurdish forces holding the northeast, and Turkish-backed groups operating along the northern border. The U.S. maintains a base in the southeast, while Druze rebels and other groups have claimed parts of the south. It’s unlikely that any single faction will dominate soon.
Three possible outcomes loom:
- Continued Civil War: Rival factions could keep fighting, extending the chaos for years.
- External Influence: Countries like Turkey or Saudi Arabia might step in to shape Syria’s future, though neither is keen to commit heavily.
- Decentralized Governance: A loose federation of autonomous regions may emerge, with HTS leading a Sunni Muslim state in the west but limited centralized power overall.
The Big Picture
This isn’t just about Syria. It’s about the shifting balance of power in the Middle East:
- Iran’s loss of influence marks a setback in its regional ambitions.
- Turkey is asserting itself as a key regional player, with growing military and political clout.
- Israel’s position is stronger than ever, as it has neutralized threats and strengthened ties with Arab states like Saudi Arabia.
For Syrian refugees across the Middle East and Europe, this power shift may offer a chance to return home. However, the big question remains: Will this new era for Syria bring peace and progress, or is it the prelude to yet another turbulent chapter? Only time will tell, but the stakes are high, and the world is watching closely.
