yogiwan

Retired agan Retired from PwC after 20 years as technology consultant and futurist This follow 25 year in information systems management Retired again following 8 years in online retail

Whack-a-Fallacy:

A Game for the Election Season

Over the years I have advocated for people to listen more and talk less. In addition, In addition, I suggested that people take into account less what people say and more of what they do. Both good practices!

One other suggestion that I recommended is to observe how people respond to things. Then I ran across this article which illustrates many of the things that I have seen in the past. But this is done as a game and with sense of humor. But it is still very relevant!

I copied this article rather than just reference it because the original was saturated with ads. You can find the original at Epoch Times. And, note this has been reposted many times already.

Whack-a-Fallacy: A Game for the Election Season

We should listen carefully to what our politicians are saying. We may not be playing a game, but we may well be getting played.

By Jeff Minick

Commentary

In Whack-a-Mole, an arcade game invented by the Japanese nearly 50 years ago, moles or other figures pop up from different holes mounted on a playing cabinet while players use a soft mallet to try to knock them back into place. Search online for “whack-a-mole game,” and you’ll find lots of variations based on the original.

With that model in mind, and with the election season fast upon us, now seems a good time to have a go at Whack-a-Fallacy, my own addition to this genre of sport. For equipment, you need a screen for watching speeches and press conferences, a pen or pencil, a pad of paper, and a timer. The rules are just as simple. Before beginning play, write down the fallacies you are looking to detect on the pad of paper. On your television or phone, find the event you’ve selected, a politician delivering a public address, engaging in debate, or holding a press conference. Start the timer, and every time a fallacy on your pad pops up, jot down a hash mark beside it.

To help you get started, below are some common logical fallacies by which politicians—and the rest of us, for that matter—slip illogical arguments into their verbal punches.

The Ad Hominem Attack

This one is quite common, particularly in heated political arguments, and easily spotted. The user ignores the argument and the issue at hand to personally attack an opponent. Ad hominem assaults can also be delivered against entire groups of people united by similar ideas or goals.

Name-calling or innuendo are the weapons of choice here.

“You’re no scientist, so why don’t you stick to what you know?” is an ad hominem tactic to avoid a debate. “Senator X wants to send our troops to the Middle East, but he’s never served in the military.”

Keep your eye out for this one, and you’re sure to rack up points.

Red Herring

This fish fry fallacy occurs when the speaker attempts to slide away from the original topic. A person losing an argument may try to change the topic by bringing up the weather or pointing out some extraneous detail from last night’s party. One woman I know can deflect attention from the matter at hand just by saying, “Interesting,” and then telling an anecdote from her workplace.

Under fire at a news conference about the shape of the American economy, a candidate for reelection to the Senate may suddenly reply, “Look, this isn’t the main issue of our day. The main issue is climate change,” and he continues on from there with his concerns about melting polar caps and gas-powered vehicles. Down that rabbit hole he scurries, and the issue of the economy disappears.

The False Dilemma

Most of us frequently resort to either/or propositions, seeing only two possible choices when there may in fact be several.

“We can go bowling or go to the movies,” a teen says to friends, but they could also play video games, take a long walk, or study for Monday’s math test. “Would you rather become a sculptor or keep working your 9–5 job?” leaves out the possibility of doing both.

Politicians love false dilemmas in part because they create fear.

“Vote for me or America will become a dictatorship.” “Vote for my opponent, and you are condemning your children to a life of ignorance.” “If you don’t vote for me, you are a bigot.”

Appeals to Celebrity Authority

This is a subdivision of an appeal to a false authority, and is both common and easy to spot, as may be seen when a movie star endorses a particular car or a sports figure gives her stamp of approval to a brand of toothpaste.

We’ll see this fallacy at work everywhere this fall. A film personality will appear on a talk show or a podcast to appeal to voters to support a candidate. A pop musician will pause on stage to attack a politician, often knowing less about that candidate or the issues of the day than the ordinary citizen.

Listen up for this fallacy, and you can run up that tally faster than you’d ever imagine.

Bandwagon Fallacy

Anyone raising teenagers is familiar with this one.

“But Mom, everybody’s going to the concert!” “But Dad, nobody does well in Mr. Caldwell’s math class!” If everyone is on the bandwagon, goes this fallacy, then it’s surely the place to be.

Watch out for politicians who claim to speak for all Americans. That bandwagon doesn’t exist except in his or her mind. Watch out for politicians who speak about being on the wrong side of history. Beware of anyone who uses the phrase “science says.” These are attempts to get you to leap aboard the bandwagon.

If you want to add other fallacies to your list, simply explore online for “logical fallacies,” and you’ll find such classics as the straw man fallacy, circular reasoning, and slippery slope, along with examples of each.

Of course, my point here isn’t my made-up game of Whack-a-Fallacy. My point is that we should listen carefully to what our politicians are saying. We may not be playing a game, but we may well be getting played.

Whack-a-Fallacy: Read More »

A goal isn’t a mission

This article is centered around a discussion between President John Kennady and the head of NASA James Webb. The article “A Goal Isn’t a Mission” highlights the difference between goals and missions usually within an organization but is the current environment that same considerations should be applied when listening to interviews and debates. While goals are specific, measurable outcomes that can change over time, a mission is a broader, enduring purpose that guides the organization’s actions and decisions. The article stresses the importance of not confusing the two, as focusing solely on goals can lead to losing sight of the company’s long-term vision and includes observations of what can happen when the vision is ignored. So at this time, our assessment regarding interviews and debates should be on whether the speakers are aligning their goals with their mission to ensure sustainable success or if they are more focused on goals to achieve short term objectives. From my perspective, there should be a lot more discussion of vision.

For more details, you can read the full article here.

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Where’s the Justice?

If only Jerry Jones could build a football team as well as he builds a brand.

The Dallas Cowboys may not have made a Super Bowl in 28 years, but it’s hard to argue with the investment: Owner Jerry Jones bought the NFL team in 1989 for $150 million, and now they’re the first pro sports franchise to be worth more than $10 billion, per Sportico. If you shaved $52 million off their valuation for every one of the 48 points the team gave up to the Green Bay Packers in their playoff shellacking last year, they’d still be the most valuable franchise in the NFL. The regular-season specialists generated $1.2 billion in revenue in 2023 alone, 50% more than the No. 2 Los Angeles Rams and a world record for one season. The average NFL team is now worth nearly $6 billion, up 15% from last year..

Where’s the Justice? Read More »

First Noninvasive Method to Continually Measure Blood Pressure

Caltech researchers have developed a groundbreaking noninvasive method to measure blood pressure continuously and accurately. Unlike traditional cuff-based devices, this new technique uses ultrasound and machine learning algorithms to track blood pressure directly from the patient’s arteries. This method provides real-time monitoring without the discomfort or interruptions caused by inflating cuffs. The innovation has the potential to transform how blood pressure is managed, especially for patients with cardiovascular conditions, offering more precise data for better healthcare decisions.

For more information, you can read the full article here.

First Noninvasive Method to Continually Measure Blood Pressure Read More »

Car Decisions  –  Gas vs Electric

I have been thinking about new car options. Not that I am in the market since my 2016 VW Passat just reached 40,000 miles and at that rate should last another eight years or so. But my wife’s 2019 Hyundai Santa Fe has nearly twice as many miles and based upon past experience may come up for consideration in the next year to two.

So, I have been thinking about cars. Also, I have seen quite a few articles about electric cars (EVs) and the supposed advantages of them. But, looking at sales in the US, there does not seem to be a major move away from standard gas vehicles. Although there has been a pretty good growth in sales over the last five years.

Globally, sales have grown from 2.2% in 2018 to nearly 18% in 2023 with a substantial growth this year primarily driven by the China market. In the US, sales growth is not quite as robust with 2018 sales at 1.8% growing to about 7.6% in 2023 and just under 8% this year. At this rate it will be sometime before new cars sales even approach 25% of the market and as for cars on the road, it will be a while before we see the impact of a shift from gas cars. There may be pockets where EVs may be more prevalent but this will be in urban areas and where the incentives can swy the market.

A question regarding the global growth versus the US leads to differences in political incentives in places like China and Europe. While there are political and economic incentives in place in the US, they are not nearly as significant as those seen in China or parts of Europe. That is with the possible exception of California where they have set a goal of zero-emissions by 2035. Based on current adoption rates. California will have to employ significant political and economic pressure.

So why should US car buyers be swayed into buying an electric vehicle?

There are parts of the US where it is impractical to consider an EV. This is especially true in rural areas in the mid-west where daily travel distances are great and charging opportunities are few. There may be areas in California where this is true as well and it will be interesting to see how the political imperatives resolve themselves with geographical realities (not that realism has been a consideration in California lately).

There are parts of the US where it is impractical to consider an EV. This is especially true in rural areas in the mid-west where daily travel distances are great and charging opportunities are few. There may be areas in California where this is true as well and it will be interesting to see how the political imperatives resolve themselves with geographical realities (not that realism has been a consideration in California lately).

Other concerns center around charging station facilities. Longer trips with EVs have to be planned with consideration of the location of charging stations and the time it takes to recharge which currently around 25 to 30 minutes. This is compared to the nearly ubiquitous availability of gas stations and the fact that it only takes a few minutes to fill up with gas.

However, as a basis for any decision you do need to look at the overall costs of EVs versus gas and that include purchase price, operating costs and maintenance costs. Then, you have to add in the social political issues which are becoming more consequential.

Here is a simple comparison table. There are more extensive assessments but that’s a bit beyond the scope of this article.

These estimates provide an overview of the operating costs for cars driven 15,000 miles annually. Costs may vary based on location, driving habits, vehicle type, and local electricity rates.

Using these numbers, it would take 8.75 years for a total cost to breakeven. Plus, there may be some other incidental costs such as installing a charging capability at your home. Electric costs may be further offset if you have solar energy installed at your home. And there may be other considerations I am not thinking of. But this is still not the whole story.

There are ever changing social and political considerations.

The social issues are mostly centered around environmental concerns People are increasingly motivated by the desire to reduce their carbon footprint and contribute to a cleaner environment. Also, Modern consumers often seek the latest technology, and EVs represent cutting-edge advancements in automotive technology. Features such as instant torque, quiet operation, and advanced infotainment systems appeal to tech-savvy buyers

The political issues are more complex:

  • Government Incentives: Many governments offer substantial financial incentives for purchasing EVs, including tax credits, rebates, and grants. These incentives help offset the higher initial costs and make EVs more accessible to a wider range of consumers.
  • Regulatory Mandates: Policies such as emission regulations and fuel economy standards compel automakers to produce more EVs. For instance, the European Union has stringent CO2 emission targets that incentivize the production and sale of low-emission vehicles.
  • Zero-Emission Goals: Some regions have set ambitious goals to phase out internal combustion engines. For example, California aims to have all new car sales be zero-emission vehicles by 2035. These targets drive both supply and demand by encouraging automakers to focus on EV production and consumers to consider EVs for futureproofing their purchases.
  • Investment in Infrastructure: Governments are investing heavily in EV infrastructure, including public charging stations and grid improvements. This investment reduces the barriers to EV adoption and encourages consumers to switch from gas-powered vehicles.

So where does all of the lead. Currently, this is pretty much an individual decision. Are environmental issues more important? Are monthly operating costs key? Do geographic issues limit choices?

Some things are recognizable: gas prices are most likely going to continue to raise, but so are electricity costs. Governments both state and federal will create various incentives that will be in line with broader policies and other issues. Technology will continue to improve battery performance and life at ever deceasing costs.

None of this makes the decision any easier. So, I guess in the short term, you will have to rely on the old basics:

  • does it look good,
  • is it the color I want
  • does it have a good navigation system, and
  • does it have a good infotainment system.

Car Decisions  –  Gas vs Electric Read More »

Clean Energy May be Growing, But It’s Not Replacing Dirty Energy

As the global demand for energy surges, clean energy sources are indeed expanding at an impressive rate. However, despite these advances, our progress remains uneven and insufficient. While solar, wind, and other renewable technologies are making strides, their growth isn’t keeping pace with the accelerating pace of fossil fuel consumption and economic expansion. This disparity highlights a crucial gap. This article delves into the current state of clean energy, the challenges we face, and the bold steps required to truly revolutionize our energy landscape.

https://thebreakthroughjournal.substack.com/p/clean-energy-may-be-growing-but-its

Clean Energy May be Growing, But It’s Not Replacing Dirty Energy Read More »

One Of My Pet Peeves

I like to read!

I have averaged somewhere between 45 and 55 books a year over the last ten years after I actually retired and stopped trying to generate some business online. There were several attempts from Your Smart Kitchen (a quality cookware store) to Brightzone (a marketing consulting effort) with several inbetween.

And one of the things that annoys me and continues to annoy me more is where a quality author’s name is assumed by someone else. I’m not sure how wide spread this practice may be and it is not the normal case with the majority of authors I enjoy which includes:

  • Michelle Baldacci
  • Michael Connelly
  • Lee Child
  • Lincoln Child
  • Harlon Coban
  • John Grisham
  • James Patterson
  • Brad Thor
  • Others

The two most bothersome to me are those who took over for Rober B Parker, Robert Ludlum and Tom Clancy. Three of the best writers I have encountered.

  • Parker’s Spenser series and Jessie Stone series are among my favorites of all time.
  • Ludlum’s books noted for the Bourne series which also started a set of fantastic movies are also toward the top of my list.
  • Clancy’s series with the key character of Jack Ryan that started with The Hunt for Red October, which was a great movie as well, are among the most memorable.

But in all three of these cases, the books did not stop following the deaths of their authors but were continued by others. This seems to me to be authors and publishers cashing in on the popularity of the original authors. Typically, the story lines are similar but not nearly as good as the original creators and in some cases, there is quite a bit of license taken to expand on the originals as exemplified by the Jack Ryan Jr series and tv programs.

In most of these cases, the substitutes authors are good enough to create their own material and get it published but they would certainly not have the well-established platform to leverage as a starting point. So, to me this is just exploitation by the publishers to generate more profits.

When I see these substituted authors riding on the coat tails of truly great authors, I skip those books entirely. I would hope you would as well.

One Of My Pet Peeves Read More »

Drug Extends Life

This was captured from a much longer article but I thought it might be of interest.

Anti-aging drug extends life up to 25%, staves off frailty and disease

By Bronwyn Thompson
July 18, 2024

For the first time, scientists have demonstrated how a specific protein increases in our organs as we get older and actively promotes the aging process. By blocking this activity, it could not only help us live longer, but slow the physical decline that is, right now, an inevitable part of aging.

Researchers at Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore have previously undertaken three different studies to examine interleukin-11 (IL-11) protein expression and its role in heart and kidney, liver and lung health. The lattermost research has led to an experimental anti-IL-11 therapy that’s currently in clinical trials to treat fibrotic lung disease.

Building on this work, the team identified IL-11’s role in the aging process, with its increased production leading to fat accumulating in the liver and abdomen, as well as reduced muscle mass and strength. By blocking this protein expression, these hallmarks of aging could be drastically reduced.

“This project started back in 2017 when a collaborator of ours sent us some tissue samples for another project,” explained first author Anissa Widjaja, an assistant professor at Duke-NUS. “Out of curiosity, I ran some experiments to check for IL-11 levels. From the readings, we could clearly see that the levels of IL-11 increased with age and that’s when we got really excited.”

In a preclinical mouse model, the researchers found that deleting this protein provided protection against age-related decline, frailty and disease. Deleting the IL-11 gene in mice extended the lives of the animals by an average of 24.9%. When mice were given an anti-IL-11 therapeutic at 75 weeks of age (the equivalent of around 55 human years) until death, the average lifespan of male mice was increased by 22.5% and 25% in female mice.

The mice didn’t just live longer, they were shielded from key signs of aging. Anti-IL-11 therapy boosted metabolism, with the animals producing calorie-burning brown fat, not problematic stores of white fat, blocked the loss of muscle mass and strength, and protected against multimorbidity and cardiometabolic diseases.

“Despite average life expectancy increasing markedly over recent decades, there’s a notable disparity between years lived and years of healthy living, free of disease,” said Professor Thomas Coffman, Dean of Duke-NUS. “This discovery could be transformative, enabling older adults to prolong healthy aging, reducing frailty and risk of falls while improving cardiometabolic health.”

Cancer is a leading cause of death in old mice, and autopsies in this study showed that inhibiting IL-11 expression significantly reduced this disease. (Clinical trials of an anti-IL 11 drug in combination with immunotherapy for cancer is in the pipeline.)

The therapy also benefited cell health across the board, reducing the rate of telomere shortening – which occurs every time a cell divides – and keeping the powerhouse mitochondria functioning efficiently. With an anti-IL-11 therapy already in the early phases of testing for fibrotic lung disease, the researchers have been pleased with its safety profile.

“Our aim is that one day, anti-IL-11 therapy will be used as widely as possible, so that people the world over can lead healthier lives for longer,” said senior author Stuart Cook, Professor of Cardiovascular Medicine at the SingHealth Duke-NUS Academic Medical Center. “However, this is not easy, as approval pathways for drugs to treat aging are not well-defined, and raising funds to do clinical trials in this area is very challenging.”

However, this may be one of the most promising treatments yet, as scientists continue their search for anti-aging’s holy grail. It’s estimated that slowing down the aging process in a way that increases life expectancy by a single year would be valued at US$38 trillion.

Drug Extends Life Read More »

Change of Pace

I like to throw in a change of pace every once in a while, presuming I have actually developed a pace. Something I like to add are recipes that I collected when I was operating Your Smart Kitchen and there are lots of them. If you need a recipe for something special, let me know.

Here is one that I used from July. It might still be a bit hot for this but I like pasta and can have it any time hot or cold.

Homemade Pasta Sauce

 Ingredients

  • 1 onion
  • 9 medium size beefsteak tomatoes
  • 1 (6 ounce) can Italian-style tomato paste
  • 5 cloves garlic
  • 2 tsp olive oil
  • 7 cups water
  • ½ cup red wine (merlot)
  • 3 tbsp Italian seasoning
  • 2 tbsp dried basil
  • Fresh oregano
  • 1 tsp white sugar
  • Pinch crushed red pepper

Directions

Use a food mill to naturally process the tomatoes, milling and pureeing them. Chop the onion and garlic and sauté in olive oil for 3-5 minutes in a large Dutch oven (preferably cast iron) over medium heat.  Stir in the tomatoes, tomato paste, water, Italian seasoning, basil, oregano, sugar, wine, and crushed red pepper. Adjust heat to a simmer and let be for 3-5 hours, stirring on occasion.

Note: You can do this in a slow cooker just as well as a Dutch oven

Enjoyed best over al dente pasta and a side of garlic bread.

Change of Pace Read More »

Reverse Mortgage – Benefits

There has been increasing promotion regarding reverse mortgages lately. Even ads with Tom Selleck are showing up. I guess the NYPD commissioner add validity to the offers.

But what are the advantages of a reverse mortgage?

The first and most obvious is no monthly mortgage payments. If monthly cash flow is an issue, this could be very important. Homeowners are not required to make monthly mortgage payments. Instead, the loan is repaid when the borrower sells the home, moves out permanently, or passes away.

Second, it allows homeowners access to equity. With the raise in home prices over the last two decades, some homeowners may have quite a bit of equity that is mostly inaccessible. A reverse mortgage allows homeowners to convert a portion of their home equity into cash. This can be especially useful for retirees needing additional income to cover living expenses, medical bills, or other needs. It can even be used for capital improvements or remodels.

Third, using proceeds received from the reverse mortgage are typically tax free as they are considered loan advances and not income. The majority of the accessible equity is set up as a line of credit which is then an add on to the mortgage loan.

Fourth, borrowers retain the title to their home and can continue living in it as their primary residence. They must keep up with property taxes, homeowner’s insurance, and maintenance.

Fifth, borrowers retain title to their home and can continue living in it as their primary residence. They must keep up with the property taxes and home owners insurance as there can be no escrow account.

Sixth, reverse mortgages offer various ways to receive funds: as a lump sum, monthly payments, a line of credit, or a combination of these options. This flexibility allows borrowers to choose the best method for their financial situation.

These features make reverse mortgages an attractive option for eligible homeowners seeking financial flexibility and security in retirement. Or for those on fixed income looking for some relief from cash flow worries,

Reverse Mortgage – Benefits Read More »

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