I ran across this article “100 Billion Humans” and found it to be quite interesting. A synopsis is below.
It addresses quite a few issues regarding significant population growth and brings up a significant number of questions but also a number of areas for innovation and imagination. His premise is that we do not need a great deal of new technologies or inventions but just need to reshape thinking on how to deploy water, energy and building to adjust for higher densities of population.
I suggest you take a look at “100 Billion People” and form your own ideas on this concept. Note it is a bit long and for those who like to read on your phone or tablet it can be found on Substack,
100 Billion Humans
In his article “100 Billion Humans,” Tomas Pueyo challenges the prevalent concern that Earth’s resources are insufficient to support a significantly larger human population. He posits that the planet could sustain up to 100 billion people—approximately 12 times the current population—without compromising quality of life.
Current Population Trends
As of 2024, the global population stands at about 8 billion. United Nations projections suggest a peak near 10 billion around 2080. However, Pueyo notes that these estimates may be overly optimistic, as the UN has previously revised its forecasts downward. He attributes this to declining birth rates and suggests that fears of overpopulation and environmental degradation have influenced individuals’ decisions to have fewer children.
Spatial Considerations
Pueyo examines population density to assess Earth’s capacity to accommodate more people. He cites the Netherlands, which has a population density of approximately 545 people per square kilometer and ranks as the sixth happiest country globally. Extrapolating this density worldwide would result in a global population of about 70 billion. He further references Hong Kong, with a density of 40,000 people per square kilometer; applying this density to Algeria alone could house 100 billion people, leaving the rest of the world largely uninhabited. Pueyo acknowledges that such extremes are unlikely but uses these examples to illustrate that physical space is not a limiting factor.
Advancements in Urban Development
Technological progress in construction allows for taller and more efficient buildings, enabling higher population densities without sacrificing living standards. Pueyo mentions that while current skyscrapers like the Burj Khalifa reach over 800 meters, future advancements could lead to structures exceeding 2 kilometers in height. This potential for vertical expansion suggests that urban areas could accommodate more residents, preserving natural landscapes elsewhere.
Making Uninhabitable Areas Livable
Pueyo discusses the possibility of transforming uninhabitable regions, such as deserts, into livable spaces. He points to the Sahara Desert, emphasizing that with sufficient water and cooling, it could support human habitation. Advancements in desalination and the decreasing cost of solar energy make it feasible to provide the necessary resources to convert deserts into habitable areas.
Water Resources
Addressing concerns about water scarcity, Pueyo argues that technological innovations can meet the demands of a larger population. He highlights the potential of desalination to provide fresh water from oceans, reducing reliance on overdrawn aquifers. The combination of abundant solar energy and efficient desalination processes could ensure adequate water supply for agricultural and personal use, even with a population of 100 billion.
Food Production
Feeding a population of 100 billion would require significant increases in food production. Pueyo suggests that advancements in agricultural technology, such as vertical farming and lab-grown meat, could meet this demand. Vertical farming allows for high-yield crop production in urban settings, reducing the need for extensive farmland. Lab-grown meat offers a sustainable alternative to traditional livestock farming, decreasing the environmental impact associated with meat production.
Environmental Impact
While a larger population would increase resource consumption, Pueyo contends that sustainable practices and technological innovations can mitigate environmental degradation. He emphasizes the importance of renewable energy sources, efficient waste management, and conservation efforts to maintain ecological balance. By adopting these measures, humanity could support a population of 100 billion without causing irreversible harm to the planet.
Conclusion
Tomas Pueyo’s analysis challenges the notion that Earth’s resources are insufficient for a significantly larger human population. He argues that with strategic planning, technological innovation, and sustainable practices, the planet could comfortably support up to 100 billion people. This perspective encourages a reevaluation of current population concerns and highlights the potential for human ingenuity to overcome perceived limitations.
